Last month the U.S. Census Bureau released annual (intercensal) population estimates for 2023. The Hampton Roads metro area’s population rose to 1,787,169, an increase of 1,779 residents from the previous year. The latest estimates indicate a positive shift toward pre-pandemic population trends for both the region and the nation as deaths slowed and net migration increased, a sign the pandemic’s impact is diminishing. However, some lingering effects of the pandemic continue to shape demographic trends as population growth rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels, illustrating the ongoing nature of the recovery.
As shown in Figure 1, population growth in 2023 increased from the prior year in the United States, Virginia and Hampton Roads. Nationally, the total population increased 0.5% in 2023, a continued rebound from the record low rate of 0.1% recorded in 2021. Since the U.S. Census Bureau estimates the population as of July 1st, 2021 marks the first full year of the pandemic’s impact on population growth. In Virginia, population growth edged up from a pandemic low of 0.2% in 2021 to 0.4% in 2023. In Hampton Roads the total population increased 0.1% in 2023, a rebound from a pandemic low in 2022 when the population declined by 0.01%.
While the 2023 estimates show improvement, population growth rates remain below pre-pandemic levels for all three areas. For context, from 2010 to 2019, the population increased at an average annual rate of 0.6% in the United States, 0.7% in Virginia, and 0.3% in Hampton Roads.
Population change in a region can be attributed to three components: the natural change (births minus deaths), net domestic migration (migration between the region and other parts of the country), and net international migration (migration between the region and outside the U.S.). As shown in Figure 2, in 2022, net international migration became the largest contributor to population growth in the region, as deaths and net domestic out-migration increased. The rebound in 2023 was mainly driven by fewer deaths, increasing the natural change in the population, and a decline in net domestic out-migration
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP). Hampton Roads reflects the Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC MSA.
The new census data suggests a gradual return to pre-pandemic population growth trends, though the recovery remains on-going.
* Please note the estimates presented here reflect a potential undercount of the region’s population estimates from 2020 forward due to a misreporting of military personnel in the 2020 census count. The HRPDC is currently assisting in a challenge of these census estimates, proceed with caution when analyzing the metro area and local population totals until this issue is resolved.
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