By Nikki Johnson, Regional Economist
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July. The bigger headline came from revisions to earlier months, as job growth in May and June was revised down by a combined 258,000, the largest two-month adjustment since the pandemic. Earlier in the week, BLS also released its initial June estimates for metropolitan areas. For Hampton Roads, the figures showed a loss of 2,600 jobs from May to June. The same release included a small downward revision to May’s estimate, from a loss of 1,000 jobs to a loss of 1,100. While these revisions represent a very small share of total employment, they can significantly alter the month-to-month change in jobs, which in turn can shift the assessment of short-term labor market conditions.
Monthly job estimates come from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, a survey of nonagricultural business establishments. The first estimate for a month is published on the first Friday of the following month, then revised in each of the next two releases. Revisions reflect updated information from the preliminary estimates as additional survey responses are incorporated, and seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated. For metro areas, only the prior month’s estimate is subject to revision in each release. While the process is routine, its impact can still be significant.
The table below shows the preliminary and revised estimates of civilian jobs for Hampton Roads in 2025, along with the month-to-month changes. February’s job loss was revised from 2,200 to 3,800, a notably larger decline after more data was incorporated. In contrast, March’s employment gain was revised up from 800 to 1,100 jobs. April and May saw only minimal changes between preliminary and revised data. In addition to these rolling monthly changes, the CES survey data is revised once a year through a process known as benchmarking. This aligns the survey-based estimates with a near-complete count of jobs from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records.
Data Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, ALFRED and HRPDC. Hampton Roads reflects the Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC MSA.
In March 2025, the BLS revised metro area employment estimates from January 2020 through December 2024. As Figure 2 shows, the benchmark adjustments left the general trend intact but made meaningful changes to the recent trajectory. The estimates as of the July 17, 2025 vintage reflect the 2024 QCEW benchmark, showing slightly faster growth earlier in the post-pandemic expansion followed by slower growth through 2024,
Revisions are not errors, but an expected part of refining preliminary estimates as more data become available.
For the national figures, the latest revisions bring job growth trends more in line with private sector estimates such as those produced by ADP. While preliminary data provides timely insight, the more complete picture emerges after revisions.