RCS Scenario Planning

Overview

The Regional Connectors Study (RCS) Regional Scenario Planning process provided insight to decisionmakers regarding the need for and the benefits of alternative transportation investments considering potential alternative future trends. The Scenario Planning process considered a baseline 2045 scenario and three alternative 2045 scenarios that presented plausible alternative futures (called scenarios) with respect to economic, demographic and technology drivers.

The process

The scenario analysis linked alternative future economic and demographic trends with land use and the resulting socioeconomic forecasts were tested with the regional travel demand model to understand the impacts to transportation and other performance measures. The scenario outcomes provided a series of benchmarks against which to test the resilience of different transportation investments. The purpose of the scenario planning process was to identify those transportation investments and projects that fared best in the analysis—that provided the most cumulative benefit to the region regardless of which alternative future scenario was tested. This was done by testing each of the Preliminary Alternatives against each scenario to gauge how robust each investment was with respect to the range of possible futures.  This process is called “Exploratory Scenario Planning.”

Who is involved?

Throughout the RCS Regional Scenario Planning process, the RCS Working Group worked closely with HRTPO staff, regional stakeholders, and the Consultant team to provide guidance, affirm scenarios, select drivers and performance measures, and evaluate interim and final results. The RCS Working Group was made up of staff from the counties and cities, transportation agencies, and federal and state agencies of the Hampton Roads region. The RCS Steering (Policy) Committee overseeing the overall RCS process was also updated on the progress on the Regional Scenario Planning effort.

Baseline Scenario

Overview

The Baseline scenario is the adopted 2045 regional socioeconomic forecast, as approved by the HRTPO Board. It includes forecasted growth of 8% in employment and 17% in population over the 2015 base year.

This scenario was tested with the new regional travel demand model, based on a transportation network of existing and committed projects (committed projects are defined as fully-funded transportation projects programmed for construction in the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) Six-Year Improvement Program), to identify baseline transportation performance in 2045.

The three alternative scenarios, or “Greater Growth” scenarios, included additional growth amounts that were allocated differently according to the drivers of growth unique to each scenario.